Changing Dynamics of Extreme Hydrological Events over India Due to Changing Climate

The Department of Civil Engineering invites you to a talk titled ‘Changing Dynamics of Extreme Hydrological Events over India Due to Changing Climate’ by Dr. Mayank Suman, Assistant Professor, Department of Civil & Infrastructure Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Jodhpur. The hybrid talk is scheduled on 22 September 2022 at 12:30 PM in D217. The talk will be moderated by Dr. Ellora Padhi, Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence, Delhi NCR.

Abstract of the talk

Hydrological extremes are expected to become more frequent and intense with regional variation under changing climate. In this regard, the analysis of observed daily and simulated future precipitation over India suggests geographically contrasting changes – extreme precipitation magnitude exhibit higher increase in south India compared to north, central and north-east India. Analysis of meteorological forcing for pan-India precipitation suggests that the primary reason for this contrast is the eastward shift in moisture flux over the Indian Ocean region, which is also validated using reanalysis data. These changes in precipitation field will affect other hydrological systems/extremes. After developing a stochastic bias correction technique suited for extreme precipitation (which outperformed the existing techniques), and modeling of temporal consequences of different types of drought, status of agricultural drought across Indian mainland is analyzed. Drought severity and duration are expected to increase for north and central India, but the same will decrease for south India. The percent area of Indian mainland under extreme or moderate agricultural drought is expected to increase to 20% and 50% respectively by the end of this century. Overall, this lecture discusses changes in hydrological extremes across India under changing climate. Results/developed datasets are expected to be useful to the community.