Breaking the Flow: Ecological Risks of the Indus Waters Treaty in Abeyance

In April, following a devastating terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam that claimed 26 lives, India announced a series of stern actions against Pakistan. Among the most striking moves, the Indian government temporarily suspended the decades-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a landmark water-sharing agreement, and downgraded diplomatic relations with Islamabad. The temporary suspension of IWT has had immediate and long-term ecological impacts on India.

As an upper-riparian state, India has considerable control over the Indus Basin. However, altering the river flow has significant ecological consequences for the Himalayan river system, particularly the Indus River Basin. Any alteration in the flow of water can affect the river ecosystem – its aquatic life, agricultural plains and groundwater levels. IWT only addresses surface water distribution and does not include provisions for managing groundwater extraction. The excessive extraction of groundwater poses a significant concern in the Indus Basin. Research showcases the sharp decline in the groundwater over the long term, which will ultimately have great consequences across the basin. For instance, groundwater can be depleted in the Indus basin region, particularly in northern India, by 75 % in the coming decade. Consequently, it is likely to exacerbate the groundwater stress situation for India to move to the stage of abeyance of the Treaty in the environmental context. After suspension of the IWT, groundwater extraction may decrease because of the availability of surface water in large quantities. However, this would also require the creation of new infrastructure first. It has been noted that most of India's hydropower and water infrastructure related to the Indus Basin is located in seismically sensitive zones across Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). Any development of water infrastructure and the capacity for water storage in Jammu and Kashmir may thus, be adversely affected due to this risk. J&K farmers may, therefore, continue to exploit groundwater resources as a backup during periods when surface irrigation is inadequate.

Moreover, India is already facing water scarcity in the Indus region due to water mismanagement, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir. Instead of these enormous water resources, J&K is dealing with a major problem of water stress as expanding human population and climate change are putting pressure on these resources. Statistics depict that the area’s urban population (excluding Jammu and Srinagar) was around 14.48 lakh people, requiring 74.80 million gallons of water per day (MGD). But there is a 41.02 MGD gap due to the fact that installed capacity is only 33.78 MGD. Similarly, the rural areas, which have a population of around 91.08 lakh people, have a 55.59 MGD shortfall. Moreover, the Indus Basin covers a significant part of J&K; however, this region is primarily mountainous, limiting cultivated land irrigation. As per the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, the terrain difficulty in managing J&K water resources hampers the region’s agricultural economy, which employs over 70 per cent of the population of J&K. Several statistics point toward the need to increase agricultural output through better water management. Of a total of 1,794,496 hectares of area in Jammu, more than 70 per cent of the land continues to be unirrigated. Similarly, of a total of 556,290 hectares, nearly 40 per cent of the land continues to be unirrigated in Kashmir. Consequently, any attempt to manipulate the Indus flow can lead to the destabilisation of the J&K water ecosystem.

The Indus system is glacial-fed, and climate change has already introduced volatility into seasonal flows. Scientific studies have consistently shown a troubling trend. Himalayan glaciers are retreating at an unprecedented rate. The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has raised alarms about the worsening water supply in the Himalayan region. The ICIMOD's Snow Update Report 2024 indicates that over the past 22 years, the Hindu Kush Himalaya has experienced a consistent decline in snowfall amount and duration, with 13 of these years showing lower-than-average seasonal snow persistence. This decline has created an alarming situation regarding water availability in the Himalayan region. Various Indian institutions such as the Geological Survey of India (GSI), National Institute of Hydrology (NIH) and Space Application Centre (SAC) have monitored the changes in the positioning of the Himalayan glaciers.

It has been noted that “the mean retreat rate of Hindu Kush Himalayan glaciers is 14.9 ± 15.1 meter/annum (m/a); which varies from 12.7 ± 13.2 m/a in Indus” indicating the average annual rate of change in a measured quantity, such as glacier movement. Specifically, it means that the observed feature is changing at an average rate of 12.7 m/a. The accompanying ±13.2 m/a represents the variability or uncertainty around that average. This suggests that while the average rate is 12.7 m/a, the actual rate could reasonably fall anywhere between approximately -0.5 m/a and 25.9 m/a. The fact that the uncertainty exceeds the average itself highlights a high degree of variability in the data, indicating that the rate of change is not consistent and may differ significantly depending on location, time, or measurement conditions.

A scientific report titled, “Accelerated mass loss of Himalayan glaciers since the Little Ice Age” has also outlined concern over the rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers. Owing to changes in glaciers, basin hydrology, downstream water budget, and influence on hydropower plants due to discharge variations, flash floods, and sedimentation, melting glaciers have a considerable impact on Himalayan river water resources. Any anthropogenic disruption in the Indus waters could compound the unpredictability of river regimes, increasing flood and drought risks in India. The 2014 flood in the Kashmir Valley, for instance, was largely the result of human-induced factors, including inadequately formulated development strategies and encroachment upon the Jhelum River’s floodplain.

Moreover, keeping the IWT in abeyance will further affect the natural flow of rivers, which can lead to more severe sedimentation issues. It can change the sediment load dynamics, contributing to riverbank erosion. These processes threaten biodiversity and long-term soil fertility in adjoining agricultural zones, especially in the Ladakh and Karakoram zones.

In conclusion, it is of particular importance to examine the current water scenario in India, as it has undergone significant changes since the establishment of the IWT. Factors such as population growth, inadequate water management practices, and the impact of climate change have resulted in mounting pressure on water resources. Considering these factors and Pakistan's perceived lack of responsibility, especially concerning cross-border terrorism, India may consider suggesting a “review” rather than termination of the treaty.

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About the Author: Pintu Kumar Mahla is a Research Associate at the Water Resources Research Center, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA.